USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.9659 extended to 0.9877 last week. But subsequent sharp decline suggests that the corrective rise has completed. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for 0.9659 first. Break will resume whole decline from 1.0237 to 0.9587 fibonacci level. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9877 holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) should have completed at 1.0237 already. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9587 and below. For now, USD/CHF is seen as in long term range pattern between 0.9186 and 1.0342. Hence, we’d pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587. Nevertheless, break of 0.9975 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline from 1.0237. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.