USD/CHF defended 0.9841 last week and rebounded strongly. Subsequent break of 0.9970 resistance suggests that price actions from 1.0027 are a consolidation, which could have completed at 0.9851 already. Initial bias remains on the upside for retesting 1.0027 high first. Break will resume whole rally from 0.9659. On the downside, however, break of 0.9911 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9851.
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral as USD/CHF is staying in range of 0.9659/1.0237. In any case, decisive break of 1.0237 is needed to indicate up trend resumption. Otherwise, more sideway trading would be seen with risk of another fall. Meanwhile, break of 0.9695 support will target 0.9541 support instead.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
