USD/CHF stays in consolidation in range of 0.8998/9200 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.8998 will resume larger down trend. On the upside, break of 0.9200 will resume the rebound from 0.8998 short term bottom, towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8998 at 0.9343.
In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low), which is still extending. Sustained trading below 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.9081 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 0.8639. On the upside, break of 0.9376 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
