USD/CHF’s break of 0.8998 low last week confirms resumption of medium term down trend. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9304 to 0.9030 from 0.9207 at 0.8933. On the upside, break of 0.9101 minor resistance mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again.
In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. On resumption, next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. Nevertheless, strong break of 0.9304 resistance should confirm medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into along term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
