USD/CHF’s correction from 0.9471 short term top extended lower last week. With 0.9350 minor resistance intact, deeper fall could be seen. But we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.8756 to 0.9471 at 0.9198 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9350 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.9471 high. However, sustained break of 0.9198 will bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 0.9029.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0237 should have completed at 0.8756, on bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Current rally from 0.8756 should target 0.9901 resistance first. Break there will target 1.0237/0342 resistance zone in the medium term. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 0.9192) will dampen revive medium term bearishness for down trend extension through 0.8756 at a later stage.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
