USD/CHF gyrated further lower to 0.9101 last week but recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Deeper fall is expected as long as 0.9225 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.9101 will target 0.9017 support, and then 0.8925. On the upside, however, break of 0.9225 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9367 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We’d pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
