USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.8431 extended to 0.8747 last week, but failed to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734 and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 0.8734 will extend to 61.8% retracement at 0.8920, even as a corrective move. On the downside, break of 0.8616 support will indicate rejection by 0.8734, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8431 low.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.9223 as the second leg. Strong support could be seen from 0.8332 to bring rebound. Yet, overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8332, however, will resume larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Rejection by 55 M EMA suggest that this fall is in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.
