USD/CHF gyrated lower last week as consolidation from 0.9200 extended but downside was contained above 0.9007 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.9107 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9200, and probably to 0.9223 key resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.9007 will bring deeper decline to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8954).
In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9223 resistance holds, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern. That is, long term down trend is in favor to resume through 0.8332 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.9223 will be an important sign of bullish trend reversal.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 55 M EMA (now at 0.9131) will indicate that the third leg has already started. However, rejection by 55 M EMA again, followed by break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317, will pave the way back to 0.7065.
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