USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.7871 extended higher last week but reversed after hitting 0.8170. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for retesting 07871/7910 support zone. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, though, break of 0.8170 will resume the corrective bounce to 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7871 at 0.8379 next.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the down trend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9200 resistance holds. Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
