USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9486; (P) 0.9509; (R1) 0.9532; More

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. But further rise is expected as long as 0.9337 support holds. As noted before, the head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 0.9254, h: 0.9186, rs: 0.9337) suggests near term reversal. Rise from 0.9186 should target 100% projection of 0.9186 to 0.9490 from 0.9337 at 0.9641 first. On the downside, break of 0.9337 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will be cautiously bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

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