Despite dipping to 109.76 last week, USD/JPY drew solid support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 and rebounded. break of 111.42 suggests that correction from 113.17 has completed at 109.76 already. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week for 112.14 first. Break will target a test on 113.17 high. Meanwhile, below 110.74 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.76 instead.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.
In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.
