Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.41; (P) 113.73; (R1) 114.00; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Rebound from 112.30 should have completed at 114.03. Deeper decline would be seen back to 112.30 first. Break there will target 111.37 and possibly below. On the upside, above 114.03 will target a test on 114.54/73 key resistance zone. Overall, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of deep decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound.

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In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.


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