USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.23; (P) 112.55; (R1) 112.85; More..

Focus remains on 112.23 support in USD/JPY. Decisive break will extend the corrective pattern from 114.54 with deeper decline to 111.37 and below. On the upside, above 113.70 will target 114.20 resistance first. Break there will resume the rise from 111.37 and target 114.73 key resistance next. Overall, price actions 114.54 are seen as a consolidative pattern. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

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