Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.73; (P) 108.37; (R1) 108.76; More..
Break of 108.20 minor support suggests that USD/JPY’s corrective rebound form 104.69 short term bottom has completed at 109.08 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 104.69 low first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited 109.46 minor resistance. Overall, larger downtrend from 118.65 (2016 high) is expected to resume finally through 104.62 after current consolidation from 104.69 completes.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.
