Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.60; (P) 108.87; (R1) 109.09; More..
USD/JPY’s break of 108.64 minor support suggests short term topping at 109.48, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Also, it’s the first sign that whole rebound from 104.45 has completed after failing to sustain above 109.31 structure resistance. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 107.88 support first. Break there will affirm this bearish case and target 106.48 next. On the upside, firm break of 109.48 is now needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.
