USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.19; (P) 103.58; (R1) 104.20; More..

The breach of 103.89 resistance suggests that a short term bottom is in place at 102.58, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for further rise to channel resistance (now at 104.27). Sustained break there will suggest that down trend from 111.17 has completed and bring further rise to 105.67 resistance to confirm. Though, rejection by the channel resistance will keep near term outlook bearish, for extending the down trend through 102.58.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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