USD/JPY surged to 111.10 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise is expected as long as 109.70 support holds. Larger up trend from 102.58 might be resuming. Above 111.10 will target 111.71 key resistance next. Firm break there will carry larger implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64 next. On the downside, however, break of 109.70 support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.
In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.
