USD/JPY edged lower to 154.77 last week but turned sideway away. Initial bias stays neutral this week. On the downside, break of 154.77 will resume the fall from 158.86 short term top to 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49 next. On the upside, however, break of 156.74 will indicate strong support from 55 D EMA and bring retest of 158.86 instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 136.02).
