USD/JPY edged lower to 146.52 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited by 150.92 support turned resistance. On the downside, sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will pave the way to 139.57 support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 136.88).
