USD/JPY staged a strong rebound last week but lost momentum ahead of 153.26 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some consolidations could be seen. Further rise is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 151.64) holds. Firm break of 153.26 will resume larger rise from 139.87 and target 100% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 153.71. Firm break there would prompt upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 158.80.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
 holds. Firm break of 153.26 will resume larger rise from 139.87 and target 100% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 153.71. Firm break there would prompt upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 158.80.){kind=link}