Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.49; (P) 154.15; (R1) 155.42; More…
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Fall from 152.07 should have completed just a head of 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96. Rise from 152.07 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 159.44. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 155.52) will pave the way back to retest 159.44. However, decisive break of 151.96 will argue that it is reversing whole rise from 139.87. Deeper decline would then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 147.34.
In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.59) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.
 will pave the way back to retest 159.44. However, decisive break of 151.96 will argue that it is reversing whole rise from 139.87. Deeper decline would then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 147.34.){kind=link}