USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.62 extended to 107.77 last week. Initial bias remain son the upside for 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12. This resistance zone will be crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

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