AUD/USD – 0.7368

Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10

Trend: Near term down

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Original strategy :

Buy at 0.7300, Target: 0.7500, Stop: 0.7240

Position: –
Target:  –
Stop: –

New strategy :

Buy at 0.7300, Target: 0.7500, Stop: 0.7240

Position: –
Target:  –
Stop:-

Although aussie’s recovery from 0.7329 suggests minor consolidation above this level would be seen, reckon 0.7400 would limit upside and bring another decline later, below said support at 0.7329 would extend one more fall to 0.7295-00 (76.4% retracement of 0.7158-0.7750), however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and bring rebound later, above 0.7425-30 would bring subsequent gain to 0.7490-00 but break of 0.7510 is needed to signal low is formed, then test of resistance at 0.7556 would follow.

In view of this, we are inclined to turn long on next decline. Below 0.7245-50 would risk weakness to 0.7200-10, however, reckon previous support 0.7158 would contain downside and aussie may stage another strong rebound from there later this week. 

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.

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