USD/CAD – 1.3190

Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway for headway to 1.4700

Trend:  Near term down

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Original strategy       :

Sold at 1.3295, Target: 1.3130, Stop: 1.3355

Position: – Short at 1.3295

Target:  – 1.3130

Stop: – 1.3355

New strategy             :

Hold short entered at 1.3295, Target: 1.3130, Stop: 1.3265

Position: – Short at 1.3295

Target:  – 1.3130

Stop:- 1.3265

As the greenback has dropped again today and broke below indicated support at 1.3191, adding credence to our view that the rebound from 1.3165 low has ended at 1.3348 last week, hence consolidation with downside bias remains for a retest of this support later. Looking ahead, a break below there is needed to confirm recent decline from 1.3794 top has resumed and extend fall to 1.3100-10 and later towards previous support at 1.3078.

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 1.3295. Above 1.3260-65 would risk test of resistance at 1.3308, break there would prolong consolidation and risk another bounce to 1.3348. Only a break of said resistance at 1.3348 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to previous support at 1.3387 (now resistance), however, still reckon upside would be limited to 1.3420-25 and price should falter well below resistance at 1.3471, bring another decline later.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.


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