EUR/JPY – 128.55

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79

Trend: Near term up

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Original strategy:

Buy at 126.00, Target: 128.00, Stop: 125.40

Position: –
Target: –
Stop: –

New strategy :

Buy at 127.45, Target: 129.45, Stop: 126.85

Position: –
Target:  –

Although euro retreated briefly to 126.49, renewed buying interest quickly emerged and the single currency has surged again, adding credence to our bullish count that recent upmove is still in progress and upside bias remains for medium term rise to extend further gain to 129.00-10, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 129.50-60 and reckon psychological level 130.00 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat later. 

In view of this, we are looking to reinstate long on pullback as 127.40-50 should limit downside. Below 126.90-00 would defer and risk test of said support at 126.49 but only break there would signal a temporary top is formed instead, bring correction to 126.00 and later towards 125.40-50.

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).


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