USD/CAD – 1.3251

Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway for headway to 1.4700

Trend:  Near term up

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New strategy             :

Sell at 1.3320, Target: 1.3120, Stop: 1.3380

Position: –

Target:  –


As the greenback finally broke below indicated previous support at 1.3264, adding credence to our view that the erratic decline from 1.3535 top is still in progress, hence consolidation with downside bias is seen for further weakness to 1.3180-85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2969-1.3535), then towards 1.3120-25, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.3080-85 and price should stay above previous support at 1.3056 and bring rebound later. 

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell on recovery as 1.3290-00 should limit upside and resistance at 1.3327 should hold, bring another decline. Above resistance at 1.3357 would abort and suggest low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound d to 1.3390-00 but only break of 1.3425-30 would shift risk back to upside and bring retest of 1.3456 resistance first.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.



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