USD/JPY – 111.15

USD/JPY – Wave V of larger degree circle V has possibly ended at 75.31 and major correction has commenced and already met indicated target at 125.00.

Although the greenback rebounded to 112.13 late last month, renewed selling interest emerged there and dollar has slipped again since, retaining our bearishness and a retest of previous support at 110.24 is underway, break there would signal the decline from 114.37 top is still in progress for further weakness to 110.00, then towards previous support at 109.59, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon downside would be limited and bring recovery later. In the event dollar closes below 109.00 on a daily basis, this would provide confirmation that the rebound from 108.13 is over and bring retest of 108.13 eventually.

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Our preferred count is that, triangle wave IV (with circle) ended at 101.45 and the circle wave V brought dollar down to the record low of 75.31 in 2011 and the subsequent rebound signal major correction has commenced with A leg ended at 84.19, followed by wave B at 77.14 and impulsive wave C is now unfolding (indicated upside target at 125.00 had been met) for gain towards 127.00 level. In the event dollar drops below support at 99.01, this would confirm medium term decline from 125.86 top (2015 high) has resumed for subsequent weakness to 98.00 and possibly 97.00.

Under this count, this wave C is unfolding as impulsive waves with (1) (2), 1 2 ended at 80.67, 79.07, 82.84 and 81.69 respectively, hence the extended wave 3 has ended at 103.74 and wave 4 correction of recent upmove should bring weakness to 92.57, then towards 90.88 but psychological support at 90.00 should limit downside and bring another rally later in wave 5, indicated target at 125.00 had been met and gain to 127.00 cannot be ruled out but reckon price would falter below 130.00.

On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 111.00-10 cannot be ruled out, reckon 111.45-50 would limit upside and price should falter below said resistance at 112.13, bring another decline later. A daily close above 112.13 would prolong consolidation and bring another bounce to 112.70-80, however, previous support at 113.12 should limit upside and price should falter below 113.85, bring retreat later. Only break of 113.85 would suggest the retreat from 114.37 has ended and bring another rise to this level, a break of this resistance at 114.37 would extend the rise from 108.13 low to 114.60-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 118.66-108.13). Having said that, a daily close above there is needed to retain bullishness and suggest the entire fall from 118.66 has ended at 108.13, then further gain to 115.00 and later test of key resistance at 115.51 would follow.

Recommendation: Stand aside for this week.

On the monthly chart, we have changed our preferred count that an impulsive wave is unfolding with major wave III with circle ended at 79.75, then followed by wave IV with circle and is labeled as a triangle with A: 147.64 (11 August, 1998), B: 101.25, C: 135.20, D: 101.67 and E leg ended at 124.14 to end the wave IV with circle. Hence, wave V with circle commenced from there and hit a record low of 75.31, however, the subsequent strong rebound signals this circle wave V has possibly ended there, hence gain to (indicated upside target at 122.00 and 125.00 had been met), the retreat from 125.86 suggests wave A of major correction has ended there and wave B correction back to 99.00, then 95.00 would be seen, however, reckon downside would be limited to 90.00, bring another rebound in wave C next year.


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