AUD/USD – 0.7955
Aussie’s breach of indicated resistance at 0.7963 signals low has been formed at 0.7808 earlier and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to 0.8000, however, break there is needed to signal the pullback from 0.8066 has indeed ended, bring retest of this level first. Looking ahead, a break above this level is needed to confirm medium term erratic rise from 0.6827 (2016 low) has resumed and extend gain to 0.8100, then towards previous resistance at 0.8163.
We are keeping our count that top has been formed at 1.1081 (wave 5 of V) and major correction (A-B-C-X-A-B-C) has commenced, indicated downside targets at 0.7945 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 0.6007-1.1081) and 0.7750 had been met and downside bias is seen for further weakness to 0.6800, then 0.6700 but reckon 0.6500 would hold from here.
Our preferred count is that the rally from 0.6007 to 0.7270 (7 Jan 2009) is marked as wave A, the retreat to 0.6248 (2 Feb 2009) is wave B and the subsequent upmove is labeled as wave C with wave (iii) and wave (iv) ended at 0.8265 and 0.7700 respectively and wave (v) as well as 3 ended at 0.9407, then wave 4 ended at 0.8066 (instead of 0.8578). The wave 5 has met our indicated projection target of 1.1060 and could ended at 1.1081, this level is now treated as the peak of wave (C) as well as larger degree wave B, hence major fall in wave C has commenced, our initial downside target at psychological support at 0.7000 has just been met and further weakness to 0.6500 would be seen later.
On the downside, whilst pullback to 0.7920 cannot be ruled out, reckon 0.7905 would limit downside and bring another rebound later. Only a break below support at 0.7867 (last week’s low) would suggest the rebound from 0.7808 has ended, bring weakness towards this level. A break below there would shift risk back to downside for the corrective decline from 0.8066 top to bring retracement of early upmove to 0.7760 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7571-0.8066) and then test of previous resistance at 0.7712 but reckon downside would be limited to 0.7640-50.
Recommendation: Buy at 0.7920 for 0.8120 with stop below 0.7820.
Our alternate count on the daily chart treated the top formed in 2008 at 0.9851 could be a larger degree wave I and was followed by a deep and sharp correction in wave II to 0.6007 and wave III is unfolding from there.
The long-term uptrend started from 0.4775 (2 Apr 2001) with an impulsive structure. Wave I is labeled as 0.4775 to 0.9851 (15 Jul 2008), wave II has ended at 0.6007 (Oct 2008) and wave III is still in progress which may extend further gain to 1.1265.