Market Overview

French government bond yields are again approaching 5%, keeping Euro under pressure even as Dollar weakens broadly. EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP are falling, while Sterling and Canadian Dollar are among the strongest major currencies. The contrast reflects two competing forces: mounting concerns over France’s fiscal and political outlook, and expectations for further monetary tightening in Britain and Canada.

Gold is struggling to hold above $4,100 as Brent tests $110 and the US 10-year yield attempts to recover. Whether $4,000 comes under threat depends on a tug-of-war between oil-driven inflation pressure pushing yields higher and lingering AI-related financial stress keeping defensive Treasury demand alive.

The probability of an October 28 BoC hike jumped from 30% to 82.8% in a single weekend, driving USD/CAD toward the 1.4000 reversal zone. But with markets already pricing roughly four hikes through September 2027, one increase may not be enough—the Bank's updated inflation projections and guidance will decide whether the breakdown holds.

Australian and Canadian Dollars are leading major currencies on Monday, but the gains are far from evidence of a broad risk-on rally. Aussie is benefiting from stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data and reduced conviction that RBA tightening has finished. Loonie, meanwhile, has retained much of its strength despite softer Canadian core inflation, supported by elevated oil prices.

A November BoE hike is 93.2% priced, but economists are far less convinced about what follows—with this week's UK wages and September CPI data set to decide whether December tightening gets closer to certainty, just as GBP/USD tests the key 1.3341 Fibonacci resistance.

EUR/CAD gapped sharply lower at the weekly open, falling from 1.6269 to as low as 1.5777, as violent weekend unrest in France compounded an already elevated fiscal risk premium while Canadian Dollar held onto support from Friday's oil surge—with Tuesday's French budget vote and Friday's Moody's review now the key tests of whether the breakdown toward 1.5733 and 1.5610 extends.

The Dollar extended its broad-based decline on Friday as Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh offered no indication that another rate hike was becoming more urgent at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, despite hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of an October hike dropped from 27.7% to 16.1%, while the Dollar Index fell toward 101.69.

GBP/USD Rebounds on Dollar Weakness, but EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF Hold the Sterling Verdict TL;DR: GBP/USD has rebounded sharply from 1.3135, but with EUR/GBP stalling near a key support level and GBP/CHF still stuck below 1.1105, the move looks more like a Dollar retreat than genuine Sterling strength—even as a November...

US producer inflation surged far beyond expectations on Thursday, retail sales beat forecasts and layoffs remained contained, yet Treasury yields continued falling and the Dollar struggled to recover. The AI-related selloff that hit Nasdaq on Wednesday extended into Asia, sending South Korea’s KOSPI down 7.57% and Japan’s Nikkei down 4.90%, even as TSMC reported record third-quarter profit.

Australia's September employment contracted by 39,300 and unemployment held at 4.7%, driving interest-rate markets to price less than one more 25bp RBA hike through mid-2027—sending AUD/NZD and AUD/USD both lower, with October 28's quarterly CPI now the key test of whether that repricing has gone too far.

A hot US CPI briefly sent the 10-year yield to 5.329% and DXY to 102.945, but both reversed sharply as AI financing fears hit CoreWeave, Oracle and Asian tech stocks—with the Dollar notably failing to catch a haven bid as yields retreated toward 5.10% and 101.285 becomes the next technical level to watch.

The Dollar surged broadly on Wednesday after September’s US core CPI beat expectations, reversing the recent retreat in Treasury yields. The Dollar Index broke above 102.60 to reach 102.72, the 2-year Treasury yield jumped toward 4.94% and the 10-year yield rebounded above 5.30%. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a Fed hike at the October 28 meeting surged from 22.1% a day earlier to 43.7%, against 17.7% a week ago.

Silver slipped below last week's 58.46 low to touch 58.39 even as Treasury yields and the Dollar fell, while the Gold/Silver ratio accelerated toward 71—a divergence suggesting Silver's weakness is no longer just about rates, with a decisive channel break opening the door to the psychological $50 level.

The Dollar Weakened Broadly but Modestly as Treasury Yields Extended Their Retreat What’s happening: The Dollar weakened broadly but modestly on Tuesday, slipping against all seven major counterparts, as US Treasury yields extended their retreat from last week’s highs. The 10-year yield fell below 5.19%, down from last week’s 5.365%...

The US 10-year yield fell toward 5.19% on Tuesday, extending its retreat from last week's 5.365% peak, but the Dollar Index has only pulled back modestly from 102.607—leaving Wednesday's US CPI to decide whether yields and the Dollar finally converge in a deeper correction or diverge once again.

Bitcoin and Ether have defended nearly identical support twice in less than a week—Bitcoin near 80,365–80,953 and Ether near 2,407—but neither has cleared the resistance needed to confirm its correction is over, leaving Wednesday's US CPI and upcoming ETF flows as the key tests of whether spot demand can sustain the rebound.

An Announced De-Escalation Is Not Yet a Credible Reduction in Disruption Risks What’s happening: Oil reversed sharply higher on Monday as early optimism over a proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire gave way to doubts about its credibility, while renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia added another source of geopolitical uncertainty. Brent...

The Australian Dollar remains directionless as RBA hike-timing bets stay split across November, December and February, leaving AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD and GBP/AUD range-bound while AUD/USD tracks the Dollar and EUR/AUD tracks Euro weakness—with October 28's quarterly CPI, not this week's minutes or jobs data, likely the real catalyst.

Gold and Silver have rebounded on a retreat in US Treasury yields, with Gold breaking its falling trendline and Silver bouncing off channel support—but neither has confirmed a bottom, making Wednesday's US CPI report the critical catalyst for whether yields extend their correction or snap back toward recent highs.

TL;DR: The Dollar rally has lost momentum rather than direction. DXY stalled at 102.232 as Fed urgency faded, long-end Treasury yields met buyer demand at two-decade highs, and France was left shouldering more of the Dollar’s remaining support. Absent a sizeable US CPI surprise, the Dollar looks poised for...