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Dec 10 18:24 GMT

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Action Insight: Market Overview

Action Insight is the most popular section of the site, read by traders around the world. Our team of analysts work around the clock, analyzing the markets from technical and fundamental perspectives in providing the reports in this section to you.



Weekly Review and Outlook: Dollar Gaining Momentum With Stocks and Yields as Focus Turns to FOMC Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 10 16 13:17 GMT
Euro weakened broadly last week as traders responded negatively to ECB's decision to extend QE with tapering. Nonetheless, the common currency was underachieved by Yen and then Sterling. Yen ended as the weakest major currency as recent selloff continued on surging stocks and yields. Meanwhile, the British Pound followed as the second weakest as recent rebound lost momentum and weighed down by Brexit worries. Canadian Dollar ended as the strongest one as oil priced stayed firm after retreating briefly through 50 handle. Dollar ended as the second strongest one, as boosted by performance in stocks and treasury yields. And the greenback is followed by Aussie and Kiwi.
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Mid-Day Report: Euro Selloff Continues as Markets Digest ECB Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 09 16 12:52 GMT
Euro's post ECB decline continues today and is now trading in red against all major currencies for the week, except versus Yen. A key factor for Euro's selloff is that the tapered by prolonged asset purchase is seen as an act to give ECB more flexibility to extend the program even further. In particular, ECB staff projected inflation to be at 1.7% in 2019, still staying below the 2% target. And Europe as a whole would face more political risks in 2017. ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure said that "there are political risks everywhere, inside and outside of the euro zone".Meanwhile, "euro zone will still need financial protection to get through 2017, which will be very risky."
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European Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 09 16 10:03 GMT
EUR: The single currency recovered after finding support at 1.0589, however, offers are still noted at 1.0630, 1.0650 and 1.0685, sell orders are reported at 1.0700, 1.0730 and 1.0750, selling interest is tipped at 1.0785, 1.0800 and 1.0820, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.0850. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.0600, 1.0580-85 and 1.0550, buy orders are expected at 1.0530, 1.0500 (related to option barrier) and 1.0480, buying interest should emerge around 1.0460 and 1.0400-10. Option expires today include: 1.0500 (over 2 bln), 1.0575 (large), 1.0600 (over 3 bln), 1.0625 (over 1 bln), 1.0650 (over 2.5 bln), 1.0700 (over 1.5 bln), 1.0750 (over 2 bln), 1.0800 (near 3 bln) and 1.0850 (over 1 bln).
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Daily Report: Euro Soft as Post ECB Weakness Continues Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 09 16 03:46 GMT
Euro remains generally soft is Asian session as post ECB weakness continues. The common currency is still in black against Yen, Sterling and Swiss Franc for the week. But it looks vulnerable and could end the week as the weakest one. Yesterday, ECB surprised the market by announcing tapering plan for its bond purchases program. The Governing Council decided to extend the program until December 2017. However, the pace would slow down to 60B euro per month from April 2017, compared with the current 80B euro. Despite disappointing in first sight, the ECB has indeed delivered more than the market had anticipated: 9 months*60B euro = 540B euro vs consensus of 6 months*80B euro = 480b euro.
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US Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 08 16 15:22 GMT
EUR: The single currency went through rollar-coaster session after ECB, the pair shot up to as high as 1.0873 before dropping sharply, bids at 1.0750, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0680 and 1.0650 were filled, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.0620 and 1.0600, buying interest should emerge around 1.0580 and 1.0550. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.0680, 1.0700 and 1.0730, sell orders are expected at 1.0750, 1.0770 and 1.0800-10, selling interest is tipped at 1.0820, 1.0850 and 1.0870-80 (stops above).
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Mid-Day Report: ECB Extends QE But Tapers, Euro Lower on Inflation Outlook Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 08 16 13:51 GMT
Euro weakens against Dollar, Yen and Sterling after ECB announced to extend the asset purchase program to December 2017, from the current expiry date of March. However, the size of purchase will be tapered from EUR 80b a month to EUR 60b a month. Benchmark interest rate was held unchanged at 0.00%. The central bank also released update economic forecasts. Inflation to projected to be at 0.2% in 2016, 1.3% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019. Projections were lowered from prior forecast of 1.6% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018. Meanwhile, growth is projected to be 1.7% in 2016, 1.7% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018, largely unchanged. It should be noted that based on the forecasts, inflation will stay below 2% target throughout the horizon. Euro's fall should be reaction to the inflation outlook.
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European Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 08 16 10:33 GMT
EUR: The single currency has surged again today, offers at 1.0785 and 1.0800 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.0820 and 1.0850, selling interest is tipped at 1.0875-80 and 1.0900. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.0750-60, 1.0730 and 1.0700, buy orders are expected at 1.0680, 1.0650 and 1.0620, buying interest should emerge around 1.0600, 1.0580 and 1.0550. Option expires today include: 1.0500 (over 1 bln), 1.0650, 1.0750 (large) and 1.0800 (over 1.5 bln).
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Daily Report: US Stocks Surged to New Record, Dollar Soft Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 08 16 04:29 GMT
US equities surged to new record highs overnight as the Trump rally continued. DJIA gained 297.84 pts, or 1.55%, to close at 19549.62. S&P 500 jumped 29.12 pts, or 1.32% to close at 2241.35. Both indices closed at new records. The recently troubled NASDAQ lagged behind a bit but still managed to close at 5393.76, up 60.76 pts or 1.14%, just below prior record close at 5395.92. Positive sentiments carried through to the Asian session with major indices trading higher. Meanwhile, treasury yields extended recent consolidation with 30 year yield down -0.053 but closed above 3.0 handle at 3.029. 10 year yield also dropped -0.049 to close at 2.347. Dollar index also stays soft and is back pressing 100 handle as recent consolidations continue. Dollar and bond traders are getting more cautious head of next week's FOMC meeting. While a rate hike is fully priced in, markets will look into update projections, in particular the so called "dot plot". Currently fed fund futures pricing in close to 50% chance of another rate hike by June and such expectations would change based on the Fed projections.
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US Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 07 16 14:28 GMT
EUR: The single currency recovered after finding support below 1.0700 level, bids are still noted at 1.0695-00, 1.0680 and 1.0650, buy orders are reported at 1.0620 and 1.0600, buying interest is tipped at 1.0580 and 1.0550. On the upside, offers are seen at 1.0750 and 1.0780-85, sell orders are expected at 1.0800, 1.0820 and 1.0850, selling interest should emerge around 1.0875-80 and 1.0900.
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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Tumbling on Production Data, Brexit Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 07 16 13:40 GMT
Sterling weakens rather sharply today on worse than expected data. Industrial production dropped -1.3% mom, -1.1% yoy in October versus consensus of 0.2% mom, 0.5% yoy. Manufacturing production dropped -0.9% mom, -0.4% yoy, versus consensus of 0.2% mom, 0.8% yoy. UK BRC shop price dropped -1.7% yoy in November. Meanwhile, Pound traders also turned cautious as the British parliament is set to vote of the government's proposal to trigger Article 50 by the end of March for Brexit. Prime minister Theresa has agreed to publish its plan ahead of the vote but it's unsure how much detail will be revealed. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is challenging the cast regarding the Parliament's final say on Brexit. Earlier this week, EU's lead negotiation for Brexit Michel Barnier talked tough and warned that time will be "short" for the negotiation.
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Daily Report: Aussie Dips on Worst GDP Contraction Since 2008 Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 07 16 02:44 GMT
Australia Dollar weakens in Asian session after release of GDP data showed -0.5% qoq contraction in the September quarter. That's much worse than expectation of 0.2% qoq growth and even worse that the most pessimistic expectation of -0.1% qoq fall. Meanwhile, that's also the largest decline since 2008. And, that's the only fourth quarterly contraction since mid 1991. On annual basis, GDP growth slowed to 1.8% yoy, worst reading since 2009. Also, in per capita terms, real GDP dropped by an even larger -0.8% qoq. RBA has noted in yesterday's statement that "some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely, before it picks up again." While one quarter's figure wouldn't prompt RBA to chance it's stance, the deep contraction would provide some food of thoughts for governor Phillip Lowe. And, Q4's data would gain more importance ahead.
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US Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 06 16 14:53 GMT
EUR: The single currency has retreated after faltering below yesterday's high at 1.0796, offers in good size are still noted at 1.0800, 1.0820 and 1.0850, selling interest is tipped at 1.0875-80 and 1.0900. On the downside, bids are seem at 1.0720 and 1.0700, buy orders are expected at 1.0680 and 1.0650, buying interest should emerge around 1.0620, 1.0600 and 1.0580, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.0550.
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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Recovers Mildly, But Stays Soft Against Euro Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 06 16 13:44 GMT
Dollar recovers mildly in early US session but stays in red for the week against most major currencies, except Yen. Traders are cautiously waiting ECB meeting later this week and FOMC meeting next week. Fed fund futures continue to price in nearly 95% chance of a Fed hike. Also, markets are pricing in over 50% chance of another hike by June. But the expectation could change in response to what policies Donald Trump would push next year. Released in US session, US trade deficit widened to USD -42.6b in October. Non-farm productivity was finalized at 3.1% in Q3, unit labor costs at 0.7%. Canada trade deficit narrowed to CAD -1.13b in October.
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European Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 06 16 10:59 GMT
EUR: The single currency met resistance at 1.0796 yesterday and offers in good size are still noted at 1.0800, 1.0820 and 1.0850, selling interest is tipped at 1.0875-80 and 1.0900. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.0750, 1.0735 and 1.0720, buy orders are expected at 1.0700, 1.0680 and 1.0650, buying interest should emerge around 1.0620, 1.0600 and 1.0580, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.0550. Option expires today include: 1.0400, 1.0425, 1.0500, 1.0525, 1.0550, 1.0575, 1.0600, 1.0640, 1.0650, 1.0685 (large), 1.0700, 1.0750, 1.0765, 1.0775, 1.0800 (large) and 1.0900.
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Daily Report: Aussie Steady after RBA Kept Cash Rate Unchanged Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 06 16 04:15 GMT
Australian dollar remains steady in range after RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% as widely expected. Nothing new is be unveiled in the statement. The central bank maintained a neutral stance and noted that "the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time." Also from Australia, current account deficit narrowed to AUD -11.4b in Q3. Technically, AUD/USD is facing a near term resistance at 0.7500. EUR/AUD also just recovered off 1.4072 near term support. There is mild prospect of more downside in Aussie in near term.
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US Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 05 16 14:40 GMT
EUR: The single currency rallied after finding good support at 1.0506, offers at 1.0665, 1.0685 and 1.0700 were tripped, however, sell orders are reported at 1.0730, 1.0745-50 and 1.0780, selling interest is tipped at 1.0800, 1.0820 and 1.0850. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.0660, 1.0620-30 and 1.0600, buy orders are expected at 1.0580 and 1.0550, buying interest should emerge around 1.0520 and 1.0500 (related to huge option barrier).
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Mid-Day Report: Euro Rebounds after Post Italy Referendum Knee-Jerk Reactions Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 05 16 12:57 GMT
Euro rebounds strongly after initial knee-jerk reaction to Italy's referendum. European stocks are also trading higher as sentiments stabilized. At the time of writing, DAX is trading up 1.5% and CAC up 1.1%. The reactions suggested that traders have already expected prime minister Matteo Renzi's loss and resignation. More importantly, it's reported that ECB didn't buy Italian bonds in the markets so far. That's an indication of calmness in the markets which reaffirm itself. ECB policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau also emphasized that while "the referendum in Italy yesterday may be deemed as another source of uncertainty," "it cannot be compared to the British referendum" as it's not on the "long-standing EU membership".
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European Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 05 16 12:13 GMT
EUR: Although the single currency tumbled initially to 1.0506, lack fo follow through selling and the subsequent strong rebound suggest further choppy trading would take place, however, offers are still noted at 1.0665, 1.0685 and 1.0700 (option related), sell orders are reported at 1.0730, 1.0745-50 and 1.0780, selling interest is tipped at 1.0800, 1.0820 and 1.0850. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.0620, 1.0600 and 1.0580, buy orders are expected at 1.0550, 1.0520 and 1.0500 (related to huge option barrier). Option expires today include: 1.0445, 1.0450, 1.0500 (near 2 bln), 1.0510, 1.0700 (over 1.5 bln) and 1.0750 (over 1.5 bln).
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Daily Report: Euro Tumbles Broadly as Italians Voted "No" to Renzi's Reform Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 05 16 04:46 GMT
Euro drops broadly today as Italians voted "no" in the referendum and rejected prime minister Matteo Renzi's reforms. Renzi has already admitted defeat after latest result showed 60% voters voted "no". He also announced that he will resign from office as he promised. Some analysts noted that the result would give a lift to the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement, which is pushing for breaking away from EU. However, it's also expected that a grand coalition would likely follow Renzi's resignation which would keep 5 Star Movement away from power. For the moment, EUR/USD's breach of 1.0518 support suggests resumption of recent decline. EUR/GBP's break of 0.8332 support indicates deeper correction is underway for 0.8 handle next.
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Weekly Review and Outlook: Euro to Take Center Stage With Italy Referendum and ECB Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Dec 03 16 15:22 GMT
Canadian dollar surged broadly last week as the highly anticipated OPEC meeting finally delivered an agreement on production cut. WTI crude oil surged 51.80 and took the Loonie, as well as stocks higher. The Canadian Dollar was also boosted by better than expectation employment data. Nonetheless, Canadian Dollar was overwhelmed by the strength of Sterling. The British Pound surged on talk that there are rooms for UK to have a softer Brexit. Meanwhile, Japanese Yen ended as the weakest major currency again on strong risk appetite. Dollar followed as the second weakest one. The mixed non-farm payroll report from US didn't change market's expectation on a December Fed hike. But the negative monthly wage growth raised doubt on whether Fed would hike again by June.
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