Market Overview

Bitcoin pushed above $80,000 on the same fiscal-credibility trade lifting Gold, plus renewed optimism over US crypto regulation ahead of the September 15 CLARITY Act vote — with 83,901 resistance now the first proof point on the path back to $100K.

TL;DR: AUD/USD barely moved on RBA minutes that confirmed, but didn't change, the existing hawkish-hold debate — the real signal was the Board's openness to pre-emptive tightening based on monthly data alone, which keeps a September hike live even without the Q3 quarterly CPI, making Wednesday's July print the...

Today's themes: Dollar: recovering after last week's slide, but this looks like consolidation after a roughly 2.6% one-month decline rather than a decisive reversal, helped at the margin by Treasury funding details that reduce, but don't eliminate, one institutional financing concern. CAD: weakest major currency, absorbing newly-imposed 50% US...

TL;DR: Gold's Jackson Hole test on Friday isn't really about rate signals — it's about whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh draws a clear line between monetary policy and Treasury's efforts to influence long-end bond markets, with only one of three likely outcomes genuinely threatening the rally. Gold’s Jackson Hole Test...

Canada is facing 50% US tariffs after trade talks collapsed, yet USD/CAD's muted reaction — with oil, bonds, and the Dollar all failing to confirm a Canada-specific stress trade — suggests markets see this as a narrower, contained shock rather than an economy-wide one.

Dollar Is Approaching a Much Bigger Technical Test Dollar’s selloff is not just about this week’s Treasury buyback announcement. DXY has broken important support and is moving toward levels that could turn a medium-term decline into a much larger structural breakdown. A decisive break of 95.55 would threaten the multi-decade...

Why Dollar weakness is spreading even as its original catalyst fades, and what that shift in market interpretation reveals about the $40 trillion debt problem underneath What's happening: Dollar's selloff has broadened across the G10 board, with DXY hovering near a fresh three-month low around 98.50, even as some of...

Japan's data is strengthening and Australia's is weakening, yet AUD/JPY keeps rising — because the cross is trading on the global yield backdrop and carry differential, not on either country's local fundamentals.

Brent crude broke above $94 and WTI through $87 today, both fresh highs since late July, after Trump threatened "TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences" against countries helping Iran evade sanctions. That oil breakout is dragging global bond yields higher again, US 10-year toward 4.70%, 30-year toward 5.24%, clawing back much of Wednesday's Treasury-buyback-driven decline, with German, UK and Canadian yields rising too.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have surged over 14% and 22% this week, respectively, as falling real yields from the Treasury buyback shock combine with Trump's renewed crypto policy push — turning a macro rebound into a more powerful, crypto-specific acceleration.

Gold surged 3.7% to $4,495 after a Treasury buyback shock sent long-end yields and the Dollar tumbling — a real-yield move that survived hawkish FOMC minutes and now puts a break above $4,600 within reach of $5,000.

What's happening: Dollar sold off broadly Wednesday after Treasury announced it will at least double its long-dated debt buyback operations, from $2bn to at least $4bn, starting September 9, pulling the 30-year Treasury yield back below 5.20% from above 5.33% earlier in the week and stripping away Dollar's recent...

Canada has avoided an immediate 50% US tariff for three days while paperwork is finalized, but the Loonie's muted reaction suggests markets see this as deadline relief, not the broader trade normalization needed to justify a bigger CAD rally.

The Hormuz crisis is shifting from an oil-and-bond story to a broader risk-off one, with equities weakening, Copper breaking lower, and Silver losing its rebound structure — a sign its industrial-demand exposure is becoming a liability rather than an advantage.

Why oil's break above $90 is spilling into global bond yields, and why that's flipping the usual risk-off currency playbook What's happening: Brent decisively broke above $90 as the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire framework expired with no diplomatic path forward, and the shock is no longer confined to energy. US 30-year...

Brent's break above $90 is doing double duty for CAD/JPY — strengthening Canada's terms of trade while pushing global bond yields higher and deepening Yen funding pressure — and this time Canada's own data are contributing too, unlike June's Yen-only rally.

The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.31%, its highest in 19 years, alongside oil's push through $90 — but fading Fed hike expectations and softer inflation data suggest structural forces like fiscal deficits and Fed credibility uncertainty are carrying the move as much as oil is.

Dollar extended its selloff into the new week without any fresh negative catalyst, instead continuing to digest the cumulative case built by weaker employment, softer retail sales and cooling inflation. September hike odds have fallen from roughly 60% earlier this month to around 25–30%, and Dollar sits at the bottom of the FX leaderboard while Aussie leads.

Gold's rally paused exactly at major trendline resistance near 4,450, but shallow follow-through selling suggests consolidation, not reversal — with this week's Iran truce deadline and early-September US data now the two catalysts that will decide the next move.

AUD/USD has broken out on external tailwinds — a weaker Dollar and rebounding risk appetite — but Thursday's jobs report lands in the middle of a genuine split between economists who think the RBA is done hiking and an RBA that keeps saying otherwise.