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Action Insight: Market Overview  This section contains analysis reports produced by our inhouse analyst team. Reports are updated at least twice a day, covering major happenings in the markets as well as their impacts. Details on the technical analysis of specific currency pair will be found in the technical outlook section. This section will be continuously expanding. Check out this section often or we'd highly recommend you to subscribe to our newsletters to get alert of new reports in this section.
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 10 08 20:33 GMT |
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Risk aversion was the main driving force towards the end of last week as markets witnessed a turn in the global equity markets as well as sharp rebound in the Japanese yen. While bad corporate results and the concern of continuation of the credit market crisis were still the factors affecting investors sentiments, there were growing concern that persistently high inflation, fueled of sharp rise in energy and food prices, are going to hurt the economy eventual. Oil prices surged to another record high above $126 a barrel is seen as the major factor that triggered the turn in investor's risk appetite. Yen crosses were sharply lower last week on carry trade unwinding. Greenback also reversed earlier gains and weakened in general. Sterling also dived again, pressured by risk aversion as well as a string poor economic data even though BoE was on hold. Euro, on the other hand, was mixed after ECB kept rate unchanged as widely expected. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 09 08 13:06 GMT |
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Yen remains strong today and extends it's strength across the board in early US session. Yen buying was triggered on risk aversion following 2% fall in Nikkei. Momentum continues with European stock markets down and US set to have a lower open. In addition to the concern over credit market crisis, markets are starting to shift the focus to inflationary pressures, in particular with oil prices breaking into $125 per barrel. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 09 08 08:03 GMT |
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The Japanese yen is broadly higher today following weakness in the stock markets, in particular with Nikkei Down 2%. EUR/JPY led the fall in yen crosses for some time and is now joined by USD/JPY and GBP/JPY. Technically speaking, firstly, USD/JPY has reached the target of 104.96/108.59 resistance zone already. Loss of upside momentum is seen in the rebound from 95.77 and the pair is now pressing a near term channel support. Break will add more credence to the case that the corrective rebound in USD/JPY is over. Together with the early signal provided by EUR/JPY, that will be another proof that yen is regaining strength, with risk aversion back. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 08 08 15:03 GMT |
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After initial weakness today, both Euro and Sterling regain some grounds. ECB is on hold at 4.00% today as markets originally expected. Trichet maintains his usual hawkish tone in the following press conference by emphasizing that the central bank's monetary policy was designed to deliver medium-term price stability and added that inflation will stay high "for a rather protracted period." While Trichet acknowledged the downside risks to growth, he still maintained an upbeat tone of the economy and describe it as having " sound fundamentals and does not suffer from major imbalances." Somehow, this is a disappointment to economists who are looking something dovish after recent weakness in economy data. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 08 08 08:22 GMT |
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Volatility continues to build up as markets are preparing for BoE and ECB rate decisions today. The Japanese yen is stealing the show again, strengthening across the board as investor's sentiments reversed again. NZD/JPY sees the sharpest move today so far after Q1 employment dropped sharply by -1.3% qoq with unemployment rate edged higher to 3.6%. Aussie has seen much weakness to after unemployment rate climbed from 4.1% to 4.2% in Apr even though job gains beat expectation by growing 25.4k. Swiss unemployment rate is unchanged at 2.6%. Euro is pressured after a Financial Times report said US and EU are united on stronger dollar. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 07 08 13:46 GMT |
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Dollar is broadly higher today as markets are still digesting Fed Hoenig's hawkish comments overnight. In additional, European currencies are sent sharply lower following a string weak data from Eurozone and Sterling. Technically speaking, Euro, Yen and Swiss are still holding above last week's low but the strength of today's dollar rally is arguing that recent rebound of the greenback is ready to resume. GBP/USD lead the way to resume down trend from 2.0319. The outlook will become clear is one or more of major currencies takes out prior near term low. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 07 08 07:52 GMT |
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Sterling dives sharply today after the release of Nationwide survey consumer confidence that fell to 70, the lowest on record. Technically speaking GBP/USD's break of April's low of 1.9599 suggests that the pair is finally breaking out a month long consolidation is is resuming the fall from 2.0391. Market's focus is turning to another batch of UK data today, including industrial production and manufacturing production which are both expected to slow from 1.3% yoy to 0.8% yoy and 1.9% yoy to 1.2% yoy respectively. Nevertheless, tomorrow's BoE rate decision will be a key focus from UK this week. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 06 08 14:33 GMT |
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Dollar is broadly lower in early US session following the news that mortgage lender Fannie Mae, reported a larger- than-expected $2.19 billion loss. The news revived concern that the worst of subprime problem triggered financial markets crisis may not be over yet. Yen and Swissy are also broadly higher as risk aversion is fighting back. Though, Euro and Aussie remains firm even though some pressure is seen in respective yen crosses. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 06 08 07:47 GMT |
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The greenback continues to consolidate today as on the one hand, markets are still digesting last week's sharp gain. On the other hand, dollar is being pressured by strength in oil prices which saw another record high above $120 a barrel. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is broad stronger on oil prices too. Nevertheless, the overall picture is still consolidative. That is, the current price actions in the markets are generally viewed as consolidations to dollar's rally as well as Euro's fall, which are still expected to resume after the current consolidations. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 05 08 14:37 GMT |
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After consolidating for most of the day, dollar is lifted mildly after better than expected services report. The ISM non-manufacturing index surprised the markets by climbing from 49.6 to 52.0 in Apr, back in the expansion region have three months of contractionary readings. Price paid component surged further to 72.1. Employment component improved remarkably from 46.9 to 50.9. However, the business activity component, though staying above 50, showed some weakness by falling from 52.2. to 50.9. Nevertheless, the boost on the greenback is so far mild and it looks as if the markets will continue to consolidate further. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 05 08 07:47 GMT |
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Dollar retreats mildly today as markets consolidate last week's gains. Focus turns to ISM non-manufacturing index. The services composite index dived below 50 expansion/contraction level in Jan and reached a low of 44.6 there. Even though the index did recovered in the following months, it's still being kept below 50. The same is expected in Apr as the index is expected to drop slightly from 49.6 to 49.5. Nevertheless, note that sentiments on the greenback has changed recently and the dollar is more sensitive to positive news than negative news. While any upside surprise today will likely trigger another round of dollar buying, markets may perceive no news as good news and give the dollar a boost if the data is close to expectation. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 03 08 19:33 GMT |
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With the support of FOMC's signal to pause it policy easing cycle and a much better than expected Non-farm payroll report, dollar was generally lifted higher last week. On the other hand, there was another round of liquidation of long position in Euro which saw the common currency being sent lower. While markets are talking about the strength in dollar and weakness in euro, the biggest mover last week was again USD/CHF, which topped the biggest mover chart for the second week. The Swiss Franc was, on the one hand, dragged down by weakness in Euro, and on the other hand, pressured by return of risk appetite. Sterling and Aussie were indeed, relatively stable against the dollar as both pairs were supported by improved investors sentiments and carry trade buying in respective yen crosses. At least, both currencies still managed to stay in familiar range against the greenback. US data will take a back seat this week. Focus will be on ECB meeting and in particular, attention will be paid to Trichet's press conference. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 02 08 12:58 GMT |
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Dollar is sharply higher in early US session after Non-Farm Payroll came in much better than expected. Even though a contraction of -20k in the job market is still recorded in the month of Apr, it's much lower the consensus of -75k. Prior month's contraction was just slightly revised from -80k to -81k. Unemployment rate also gives market a positive surprise by dropping from 5.1% to 5.0% instead of climbing to 5.2%. Dollar's strengthen is particular seen against yen, swissy and euro. On the other hand, Aussie and, to a lesser extend Sterling, are being supported by strength in yen crosses due to massive yen and swissy selling on further improvements in risk appetite. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 02 08 08:21 GMT |
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Dollar remains firm against Euro and yen as markets are cautiously awaiting job report from US. Markets are expecting NFP to show -75k contraction in Apr, with unemployment rate climbing up from 5.1% to 5.2%. While a weak report is widely expected, the question is whether the data in Apr will show improvement or deterioration from the data in Mar. Looking at the NFP leading indicators, the worse is the employment component of ISM manufacturing index that dropped sharply from 49.2 to 45.4, lowest level since May 2003 and is decidedly in contraction region below 50. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 01 08 14:15 GMT |
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Dollar remains firm today and is lifted higher in stronger core inflation reading in early US session. While the overall picture painted by today's economic data is mixed, markets are focusing on some part of it. Core inflation did came in stronger than expected as seen in core PCE's climbed from 2.0% yoy to 2.1%yoy. Headline PCE moderated from 3.4% yoy to 3.2% as expected though. Spending is another bright spot, doubling forecasts of 0.2% and grew 0.4% in Mar, up from prior 0.1%. However, income growth missed expected and slowed to 0.3%. Also, jobless claims came in much above expected at 380k. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 01 08 08:17 GMT |
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A fresh round of euro selling is seen today as the common currency falls sharply to pre FOMC level against the greenback. Furthermore, EUR/GBP dives through last week's low of 0.7851 and is resuming the whole fall from 0.8098. Swissy on the other hand, is being pressured along with the Euro, spiking, lower against the dollar and sterling. The greenback stabilized after post FOMC selling but remains mixed only, with some weakness seen against the pound. More volatility could be seen with some European markets on holiday today. Focus is now turning to March US PCE and ISM. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 30 08 20:08 GMT |
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The FOMC cuts the federal funds rate by 25bps to 2.00% as widely expected. Two members, Fisher and Plosser, voted against the rate cut, favoring no action. In the accompanying statement, the Fed described the cumulative 325bps cut as "substantial". Also, the Fed noted that "indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months." These are taken as affirmation to some analysts that Fed's is near a pause. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 30 08 13:27 GMT |
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While dollar finds some strength after better than expected growth data in early US session, the Japanese is the main market mover as it's sold off on improved risk appetite in the markets. Q1 GDP growth was unchanged at 0.6% annualized, which is above forecast of 0.4%. Personal consumption also beat expectation by growing 1.0% comparing to consensus of 0.6%. ADP employment unexpectedly showed 10k job growth comparing to expectation of -60k contraction. Yen is sharply lower across the board on anticipation of higher open in the US stock markets. Indeed, carry trade activities pushed the Aussie, Kiwi higher too. But after all, the effect will likely fade as the session goes, before another round of volatility after FOMC rate announcement and statement. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 30 08 07:56 GMT |
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Dollar remains generally firm against European majors as traders are preparing for FOMC rate announcement and statement today. Dollar is being supported by growing speculations that Fed is near to pausing it's policy easing cycle. Indeed, fed fund futures are pricing in around 20% odds that Fed will pause today and 70% odds that Fed will be on hold in June. Though, Fed is still widely expected to cut rates by 25bps to 2.00% today, with futures pricing in 80% chance. Focus is mainly on any change in the accompanying statement that signals that Fed is really near to a pause. The greenback will likely be boosted sharply if Fed does sound more confident that the monetary policy after today's cut will help save the economy from a deep and prolonged recession. |
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Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 29 08 14:20 GMT |
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The Japanese yen seems to be the biggest winner in a day of weak economic data from US and UK. US conference board consumer confidence dropped sharply from upwardly revised 65.9 to 62.3 in Apr. Released in from US, S&P Case-Shiller home price index continued its sharp decline in Feb. Both the 10-city and 20-city composite indices recorded annual falls in excess of -12%. Yen's strength is seen all over the board. Though, the greenback does manage some gains against Euro, Sterling and Aussie. |
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