USDCAD is neutral for now after a correction of the long-term downtrend stalled ahead of the key 1.3000 level. The market is trading in a range and capped below the 200-day moving average.
USDCAD has climbed to the upper end of the one-month range and has found strong resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement (1.2922) of the downleg from 1.3793 to 1.2061. There is good support around 1.2674 – near the 38.2% Fibonacci.
A move above the key psychological level of 1.3000 is needed to ease downside pressure and to open the way towards 1.3500 and then to re-test the 1.3793 peak.
The market needs a catalyst to push above the current range but momentum is weak at the moment and the bias is expected to remain neutral in the near-term. The underlying trend is still down as long as the market remains below its 200-day MA, which is keeping the overall bearish outlook.