Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2693; (P) 1.2729; (R1) 1.2783; More….
GBP/USD’s break of 1.2615 minor support suggests that rebound from 1.2576 has completed at 1.2814 already, after rejection by 1.2811 resistance. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.2476 first. Break there will resume larger decline from 1.4376. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 1.2811/4 will be an early signal of trend reversal and bring further rally to 1.3174 resistance.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 1.3174 structural resistance holds. GBP/USD should target a test on 1.1946 first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view.
