HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisFirst Impressions: Australian November Trade Balance, +$1.9bn

First Impressions: Australian November Trade Balance, +$1.9bn

Surplus little changed. Both imports (+1.7%) and exports (+1.4%) advance.

Detail

  • Imports: rose by 1.7%, +$0.6bn (vs forecast -2.1%).
  • Exports: advanced by 1.4%, +$0.5bn (vs forecast -2.6%).

Additional detail

  • The main surprise – on both the import and export side – was the resilience of fuel despite the sharp fall in global energy prices. The upshot, both imports and exports advanced rather than declining as we anticipated.
  • Import strength: capital goods +6.5%, $433mn; consumption goods +2.3%, $202mn;
  • Export strength: gold, +$681mn (off a low base); metal ores, +$317mn
  • Export weakness: coal, -$543mn, as expected, on lower volumes.

Comments

For the December quarter to date, the trade figures have been a little disappointing, with the surplus running at a monthly average of $2.0bn. This is down from a $2.2bn average in the September quarter.

On our preliminary figuring, the terms of trade increaased modestly in the December quarter, supported by higher commodity prices. This will tend to underpin an improvement in the trade balance.

By implication, net exports appear to be running as a modest negative (to date) in the quarter, whereas we were expecting a broadly neutral result. We look to the final month of the quarter to turn this it around.

Westpac Banking Corporation
Westpac Banking Corporationhttps://www.westpac.com.au/
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given above are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The results ultimately achieved may differ substantially from these forecasts.

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