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Japan: Large contraction in industrial production raises recession risk

In March, Japan industrial production dropped -0.9% mom, below expectation of 0.0% mom. For the whole of Q1, industrial production contracted -2.6% yoy. The overall contraction in industrial production in Q1 was the largest in nearly five years, since Q2 2014. The data suggested that Japanese economy could have suffered a mild recession as external demand was hurt by US-China trade war.

Also released, unemployment rate also rose to 2.5%, up from 2.3% and was higher than expectation of 2.4%. Nevertheless, retail sales rose 1.0% yoy, above expectation of 0.8% yoy. In April, Tokyo CPI accelerated to 1.3% yoy, up from 1.1% yoy and beat expectation of 1.1% yoy.

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