GBP/USD’s sharp decline last week suggests short term topping at 1.3267, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.2932 support first. Price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a corrective pattern and could have completed. Break of 1.2932 will affirm this bearish case and target 1.2588 key near term support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.3163 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3267 instead.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. While further upside is expected, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.
In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) is still in progress. On resumption, such decline would extend deeper to 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532. However, firm break of 1.3444 should confirm reversal and turn outlook bullish.
