NIESR noted that 6.6% mom growth in UK GDP in July, marking a third consecutive monthly increase. But “despite this recovery, the economy has still only recovered just over half of the lost output caused by the national lockdown.” And, “all the main sectors of the economy remain below pre-crisis levels.” NIESR forecast GDP to grow about 7% in the three months to August, and around 15% in Q3.
“There has been a welcome resumption of economic growth in the third quarter as the lockdown eased, signalling the end of a short, yet severe, recession in the first half of the year. The latest ONS estimates suggest that GDP grew by 6.6 per cent in July, a third consecutive monthly increase and is now 18.6 per cent higher than its April level. However, despite this recovery, we have still only recovered just over half of the output lost due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The evolution of the pandemic and the scale of expected withdrawals of government support pose downside risks on the pace of the recovery as we move to the end of this terrible year.” Dr Kemar Whyte Senior Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting.
