NIESR expects UK GDP growth to “stop” in September, bringing total Q3 growth to 15%. For Q4, with the background of a likely widening of lockdown restrictions, a winding down of government support schemes, and return of extensive Brexit related uncertainty, pace of recovery will be even slower, forecast to be at just 1.3%.
“Today’s ONS estimates suggest that GDP grew by 8 per cent in the three months to August. Although the latest estimates also signal a fourth consecutive monthly increase, with growth of 2.1 per cent in August itself, output is still about 9 per cent below the levels seen in February. These numbers would suggest that the UK could grow by about 15 per cent in the third quarter of 2020. However, there is further cause for concern ahead with the likely re-imposition of lockdown measures, the winding down of government support measures, and Brexit uncertainty. We expect the economy at the end of this year to be some 8.5 per cent below its level at the end of 2019.” Dr Kemar Whyte Senior Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting.
