GBP/USD’s decline from 1.3267 extended lower last week but lost momentum ahead of 1.2932 support. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Near term outlook stays cautiously bearish as long as 1.3111 resistance holds and deeper fall is expected. As noted before, price actions from 1.1946 are seen as a corrective pattern and could have completed at 1.3267. Break of 1.2932 will affirm this bearish case and target 1.2588 key near term support for confirmation. However, break of 1.3111 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3267 high instead.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern. While further rise cannot be ruled out, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.
In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) is still in progress. On resumption, such decline would extend deeper to 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532. However, firm break of 1.3444 should confirm reversal and turn outlook bullish.
