GBP/USD rose further to 1.3539 last week and breach of 1.3482 resistance suggest resumption of rise from 1.1409. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3283 support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956. On the downside, however, break of 1.3283 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for pull back.
In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3514 key resistance. Decisive break there should also come with sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.3308). That should confirm medium term bottoming at 1.1409. Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.4376 resistance and above. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3514 will maintain medium term bearishness for another lower below 1.1409 at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, focus remains on decade long trend line from 2.1161 (2007 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bottoming at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from could either be a correction or starting a long term up trend. In either case, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134.
