GBP/JPY’s sharp decline suggests that it’s already in correction to rise from 136.96 to 156.05. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 136.96 to 156.05 at 148.75. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 153.75 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Focus is now on 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, break of 149.03 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.
In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA was an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).
