USD/JPY’s strong rebound last week argues that corrective fall from 111.65 might have completed with three waves down to 108.71 already. Initial focus is now on 110.58 resistance first. Break will bring retest of 111.65 high. On the downside, though, below 109.39 minor support will bring retest of 108.71 support instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.
