EUR/CHF rebounded to as high as 1.0804 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 1.0839 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.0694 will resume larger fall from 1.1149, to 138.2% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0863 from 1.0985 at 1.0590 next.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0505 (2020 low) should have completed at 1.1149 already. The three-wave corrective structure argues that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not over yet. Medium term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 1.0859) holds. Break of 1.0505 low would be seen at a later stage.
In the long term picture, rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.1056) retains long term bearishness. Break of 1.0505 low will resume down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223.
