EUR/USD dropped notably last week but stayed in range above 1.0339/58 support zone. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.0614 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 1.0339/48 will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term projection level at 1.0090. On the upside, above 1.0614 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0786 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case, and bring stronger rebound first.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is ready to resume. Break of 1.0339 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. Decisive break there could bring downside acceleration towards 100% projection at 0.8694.
