EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.6742 last week but fell sharply since then. Immediate focus is now on 1.6450 support this week. Decisive break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.6127 has completed with three waves up to 1.6742 already. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for 1.6127 again, to extend the whole corrective pattern from 1.7062. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break o 1.6606 minor resistance, will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.6742.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5928) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
