GBP/JPY dipped to 198.73 last week after edging higher to 200.72. But it quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 200.53/72 will confirm larger up trend resumption. On the downside, below 198.73 will turn bias to the downside for 197.07 resistance turned support instead.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 200.53 after breaching 199.80 long term fibonacci level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 185.06) holds, price actions from there is seen as correcting the rise from 178.32 only. That is, larger up trend is expected to continue. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 178.32 support.
In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Focus is now on 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 at 199.80. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 251.09 in the long term.
