EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.7180 resumed by breaking through 1.6256 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.7180 to 1.6256 from 1.6629 at 1.6058. Strong support should be seen from 1.5996 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.6319 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by the deeper than expected fall from 1.7180. Yet as long as 1.5996 support holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.5996 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5999) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
