EUR/CHF’s choppy rise from 0.9209 extended higher last week and there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for next fibonacci resistance at 0.9651. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.9424 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, fall from 0.9928 should have completed at 0.9204 with the current strong rebound, after failing to sustain below 0.9252 (2023 low). It’s still early to confirm long term bullish reversal. But even as a corrective move, current rebound would extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9651. On the downside, firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9385) will maintain medium term bearishness and bring retest of 0.9204 low.
In the long term picture, as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, the multi-decade down trend remains intact, with fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) as another falling leg. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption to 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851.
