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WTI Crude Oil Faces Downside Risk — Is a New Leg Lower Coming?

Key Highlights

  • WTI Crude Oil prices started a recovery wave above the $60.00 level.
  • A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support at $61.90 on the 4-hour chart.
  • Gold prices dipped below the $3,300 and $3,280 levels.
  • EUR/USD is now trading below the 1.1320 resistance zone.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil price found support at $55.50 and recovered against the US Dollar. It tested $63.90 and is again showing bearish signs.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price settled above the $61.50 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). However, it is now struggling to settle above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

The price is now moving lower below $62.50 and testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $55.52 swing low to the $63.91 high.

There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $61.90 on the same chart. On the downside, the first major support sits near the $61.90 zone. A daily close below $61.90 could open the doors for a larger decline.

The next major support is $59.20 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $55.52 swing low to the $63.91 high. Any more losses might send oil prices toward $56.50 in the coming days.

On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $62.50 level. The first key resistance sits near the $63.20 level. The main hurdle is now near the $64.00 zone, above which the price may perhaps accelerate higher. In the stated case, it could even visit the $65.50 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of the $68.00 resistance zone in the near term.

Looking at Gold, there was a fresh decline, and the bears were able to push the price below the $3,280 support zone.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 229K, versus 228K previous.
  • US Retail Sales for April 2025 (MoM) – Forecast 0%, versus +1.5% previous.
  • US Producer Price Index for April 2025 (YoY) – Forecast +2.5%, versus +2.7% previous.
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