The ECB’s latest SAFE (Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises) report showed that Eurozone firms have revised down their short-term inflation expectations while maintaining a cautious view on long-term price pressures. The median forecast for inflation one year ahead dropped to 2.5% from 2.9%. Expectations for three- and five-year horizons remained steady at 3.0%.
When asked about risks to five-year inflation, 52% of firms still viewed them as skewed to the upside, though that figure declined slightly from 55%. The share of firms seeing balanced risks increased to 33%, while those perceiving downside risks remained unchanged at 14%.
This round also included ad hoc questions about the impact of rising trade tensions, particularly recent US tariff announcements. The survey revealed uneven exposure across firms, with exporters to the US and manufacturing companies facing the greatest challenges. About 30% of respondents reported concerns over supply chain disruptions, including delays and shortages.
In response, many businesses are already pivoting. Firms cited plans to reorient sales toward domestic and EU markets and restructure supply chains to reduce dependency on vulnerable links.
Full ECB Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprise here.
 report showed that Eurozone firms have revised down their short-term inflation expectations while maintaining a cautious view on long-term price pressures. The median forecast for inflation one year ahead dropped to 2.5% from 2.9%. Expectations for three- and five-year horizons remained steady at 3.0%.){kind=link}